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  首頁 > 影音網>勝選回顧與前瞻 Election Review and Outlook
勝選回顧與前瞻 Election Review and Outlook

[轉載自:民報]

[謝鎮寬]於2020-01-14 18:01:24上傳[]

 




勝選回顧與前瞻

總統大選舉世關注

一月11日在台灣舉行的正副總統及立委選舉,經過激烈攻防、聲嘶力竭叫陣後後,已經塵埃落定。結果出爐,總統方面民進黨候選人蔡英文以8,170,231(57.1%) 票,領先國民黨韓國瑜的 5,522,119 (38.6%) 票,及親民黨宋楚瑜的 608,590(4.25%) 票。區域立委方面,民進黨46席、國民黨22席、基進黨1席、無黨籍4席。平地原住民,國民黨2席、民進黨1席。山地原住民,民進黨1席、國民黨1席、無黨籍1席。不分區立委方面,民進黨13席、國民黨13席、民眾黨5席、時力黨3席。綜合計算:民進黨61席、國民黨38席、民眾黨5席、時力黨3席、基進黨1席、無黨籍5席共113席。

台灣這場選舉,因為選前已驚動國際社會,有共產與民主陣營勢力的暗中較勁,所以早已未演先轟動,加上卡司陣容超強,參與者有百年難得一見的政治奇才、台灣辣台妹、及官場的大內高手同台演出,還有海內外台灣全民參與,當然引起全球關注。然而,民主時代選舉前,雖然群雄竄起爭先恐後,各各使出渾身解數,透過媒體比聲量、比網紅,就是唯恐被邊緣化。不過政治畢竟不是死板的教條規則,真正有實力、沉得住氣的候選人,才能在最後勝出。現在就讓我們從選舉結果,來回顧這場精彩絕倫,劇力萬鈞的台灣總統國際杯選戰。

夜襲出包引信息火

韓國瑜於2018年,憑著ㄧ瓶礦泉水、一碗滷肉飯的招牌,在短短半年內就在高雄颳起寒風。韓流波及全國各地,把當時民進黨執政的各縣市長,打得落花流水拱手讓出大半江山,其氣勢如日沖天,大有不可一世之態。誰知,怎麼會在一年後,不僅擁有高雄市府資源,還擁有百萬意志堅如鋼鐵般的韓粉,卻被昔日九合一手下敗陣苦主蔡英文,以265萬票之落差所擊垮呢?難道真如他在敗選感言所提,「我個人努力不夠、辜負大家對我的期待」?

當然不是。韓國瑜從選戰一開始,就定調要打一場突擊戰。聽他所高聲傳誦的夜襲「只等那信號一亮、只等那信號一響,我們就展開閃電攻擊,打一個轟轟烈烈的勝仗」。選舉期間有時還輕鬆得,沒有任何選戰行程。然而於元月6日,韓國瑜在召開造勢記者會時,親自宣布將於一月9日,在總統府前的凱道,舉行百萬人上街頭造勢活動,他說9日就是密碼啟動日。一月8日下午,韓辦正式通知記者,國民黨將於9日上午召開「抓到了!民進黨介入王立強假共諜案」記者會,將由國民黨副秘書長蔡正元主持,並將做出相關回應與說明。

仙拼仙五眼護台灣

結果,澳洲世紀報與雪梨晨驅報,適時於一月8日當天拋出震撼彈,指稱國民黨副秘書長蔡正元及中國商人孫天群等人,試圖以威脅利誘方式要王立強改變說詞,包括謊稱是遭到民進黨邱義仁收買,放出他是共諜的假消息。原本想要藉機栽贓民進黨,使詐、耍賴,一舉抹黑來打垮民進黨的誠信。誰知人算不如天算,螳螂捕蝉、黄雀在后,一山還有一山高,逼得原本要引爆那夜襲的信號彈息火,最後卻演變成蔡正元不知所云的啞巴彈說明會,即口否認威脅王立強。稱自己並沒從王立強口中聽過,民進黨給錢一事,是孫天群堅稱王立強曾親口說民進黨邱義仁給了一筆錢。害得韓國瑜選前之夜造勢大會的神秘「嘉賓」,變成李佳芬和韓冰,草草收場。其實此刻,選戰輸贏已定,一月11日的投票只是行禮如儀的過場戲。

影響這次總統大選的原因,除了韓國瑜功虧一簣的奇兵策略出包外,香港反送中大遊行激發年青選民積極參與投入選舉,反滲透法發揮嚇阻五毛網軍及地下賭盤威力,五眼聯盟適時救援昭告國民黨蔡正元栽贓鬼計,黑鷹失事國人沉著應變沒有引起社會動盪不安,美國通過一連串友台法案支持台灣,美中經濟貿易衝突轉而關注台灣,這些都給蔡英文勝選帶來加分效果。

民意流失冷暖自知

從開票數據來看,韓國瑜當然並不是唯一在這場選舉中,把一手好牌打爛的高手。頂著同樣是2018年九合一地方大選時,「東奧正名」公投案有476萬投下同意票基礎的喜樂島聯盟,卻在不分立委選舉只拿到29324票。在一群自命高級知識份子博士們的論政下,台灣正名光環被消耗殆盡,其背後民意快速流失,真是令人慨嘆民意如流水,可以載舟也能覆舟。

國民黨立委不分區提名,一直是圍繞這次韓國瑜敗選的因素之一。但國民黨卻獲得4723504票33.36%,與民進黨的4811241票33.98%相去無幾,同樣都拿到13席立委。單從得票率來看,吳敦義似乎不應背負敗選原罪。反而是投蔡英文的票數,比投給民進黨整整多出3358990票,
這意謂人民真的不認同韓國瑜,並不是完全肯定民進黨或蔡英文,而韓卻還有5522119鐵粉。

國際肯定台灣抗中

不過話說回來,國民黨的兩岸關係立場,確實需要重新檢討,究竟台灣是不是臣屬於中國,為什麼至今仍然全黨上下都奉行九二共識?雖然韓國瑜表明不接受一國兩制,除非Over my dead body。但該黨至今依舊名冠中國,國民黨是要落地生根、還是想落葉歸根,其與中國之間隸屬關係,真是到該說清楚講明白的時候了。

選舉結果揭曉後,蔡英文受到國際社會各國元首領袖的道賀,他們都不約而同地恭喜蔡英文博士連任、台灣的總統選舉、肯定台灣人民的民主成就、力抗中國霸權,有些甚至以台灣選民向北京說不為標題。但中國外交部說:「台灣地區選舉是中國的一個地方事務」;國台辦也發表聲明指說,「我們對台大政方針是明確的、一貫的。我們堅持『和平統一、一國兩制』基本方針,堅持一個中國原則,堅決維護國家主權和領土完整,堅決反對任何形式的台獨分裂圖謀和行徑,堅決增進台灣同胞利益福祉」。中國根本不懂民主選舉,自己本身毫無選舉素養,卻要對台灣的總統大選說三道四,真的是厚顏無恥、馬不知臉長。

參與國際走入世界

蔡英文在勝選致詞時說『藉由每一次的總統大選,台灣人都在告訴全世界,我們有多麼珍惜民主自由的生活方式。誠懇呼籲對岸當局,「和平、對等、民主、對話」。希望北京當局可以理解,民主的台灣、民選的政府,不會屈服於威脅恫嚇。兩岸的相互尊重及良性互動,才符合彼此人民的利益與期待。這場選舉的結果,就是最清楚的答案。選舉已經結束了,所有選舉過程中的衝突,都應該到此為止。我們肩上有更重的責任,眼前有更多的任務。從明天開始,我們還是每一天都努力工作,絕對不會辜負今天投票給我們的人民。』

是的,台灣人民透過民主選舉想要告訴全世界,我們有多麼珍惜民主自由的生活方式,有多麼渴望參與國際、走入世界。現在選舉已經結束,來到眼前的是責任的承擔與歷史的挑戰。有人在大選過後鬆了一口氣說,那美好的仗我已打過可以安心的離去。相信這是很多人的心聲,我也由衷期盼但願如此,可惜定位台灣那真正美好的聖戰還沒來臨。817萬選民的託付是守護台灣,不是要去與中華人民共和國爭中國的代表權,台灣就是台灣,不是嗎?在蔡英文總統第二任期內,希望她能配合美國,處理那長久以來懸而未決的中華民國議題,進而確定台灣人民的國家認同,釐清台灣在國際社會的法理地位。

定位台灣守住民主

中華民國真的擁有台灣的領土主權嗎?聯合國2758號決議,與中華民國有關,但卻與台灣沒有絲毫瓜葛,為何台灣要作繭自纏、把中華民國冠在台灣頭上、自取其辱呢?2005年底筆者曾專函陳水扁總統,懇請慎重處理國家稱號,所得回覆是「中華民國在台灣」乃時下共識。15年的時間已匆匆而過,當今社會仍在「中華民國台灣」打轉,令人不盛噓唏!不要忘了中華民國仍然安坐於聯合國,只是其代表權由中華人民共和國完全合法繼承。今日在台灣的中華民國,究竟是想要日後繼續代表中國、還是台灣?請明確定調。當年陳水扁因朝小野大,有心無力無法處理。現在民進黨國會過半,是完全執政,此時不為更待何時?如果應邀到美國國會去演講時,是要以中華民國總統、中華民國台灣總統、還是台灣總統具名出席?

這次總統大選活動,前後歷時超過半年,勞動千百萬選民的熱情參與,更有遠自世界各地專程歸來投票的僑民,參選團隊競爭過程激烈,但結果卻能平和落幕,守住福爾摩沙美麗的民主堡壘,實屬難能可貴,除了是要感謝上蒼的賜福與庇佑外,台灣人更值得自我肯定引以為豪。希望蔡政府在第二任期,能完成帶領台灣走入世界、參與國際社會和組織。

謝鎮寬
加州、海沃

https://www.peoplenews.tw/news/27493e59-dcbb-4cbc-a2e5-b46d24996662
民報
【專文】勝選回顧與前瞻
文/謝鎮寬(加州、海沃) 2020-01-14 10:37

Election Review and Outlook

Worldwide attention Taiwan Presidential Election

The presidential and legislative elections held in Taiwan on January 11th have been settled after intense offensive and defensive and hissing out. As a result, Tsai Ing-wen, DPP candidate had 8,170,231 (57.1%) votes, ahead of KMT Han Kuo-yu 5,522,119 (38.6%) votes, and PFP James Song 608,590 (4.25%) votes. In terms of regional legislators, DPP has 46 seats, KMT has 22 seats, BPP has 1 seat, and there are 4 seats without party membership. The Aboriginal people on flat land, KMT has 2 seats and DPP 1 seat. The Aboriginal people in the mountains, DPP has 1 seat, KMT 1 seat, and one seat without party membership. Regarding legislators without divisions, DPP has 13 seats, KMT 13 seats, TPP 5 seats, and NPP 3 seats. In summary calculation: DPP has 61 seats, KMT 38 seats, TPP 5 seats, NPP 3 seats, BPP 1, and 5 seats without party membership.

This election in Taiwan has caused the world attention because the PRC’s interference. Coupled with the super stars cast, a rare political wizard, a tough Taiwan girl and a big political master on the same stage, as well as the participation of Taiwanese people at home and abroad, of course, attracted global attention. However, before the elections in the democratic era, although the candidates rushed to compete, each of them tried their best to compare the volume and the influence of the Internet through the media, for fear of being marginalized. However, politics is not a rigid dogma after all. Only really strong and calm candidates can win in the end. Let us now look back at this wonderful and powerful Taiwan President's International Cup election campaign from the election results.

The night attack failed due to fuse went out

In 2018, with the signature of a bottle of mineral water and a bowl of braised pork rice, Han blew a cold wind in Kaohsiung in just six months. Han’s current spread all over the nation and defeated most DPP mayors governing the country at that time. Its momentum is so great that it is extremely rare. Who knows, after one year, not only does it have the resources of Kaohsiung City, but also millions of Han’s fans like steel, but it was defeated by the bitter leader Tsai Ing-wen of the past 9 in one election, hit by a gap of 2.65 million votes. How about it? Is it true that as he said in his defeat, "I have not worked hard enough to live up to everyone's expectations for me"?

Of course not, since the beginning of the election campaign, Han has set a tone for an assault. Hearing the night raid chanted by him aloud "Just wait for that signal to light up and wait for that signal to ring, we will launch a lightning attack to fight a vigorous victory." Sometimes during the election, he just laid back, without any campaign schedule. However, on January 6th, when Han held a press conference, he personally announced that on January 9th, a million people would go to the Katagalan Boulevard in front of the Presidential Palace. He said that 9th is the password of activation day. On the afternoon of January 8th, Han’s Office officially notified reporters that the KMT will hold a press conference on the morning of the 9th, "DPP's involvement in William Wang’s fake communist spy case". It will be chaired by KMT Deputy Secretary-General Alex Tsai and will answer all questions accordingly.

Spy to spy Five Eyes guards for Taiwan

As a result, the Age and the Sydney Morning Herald promptly threw shock bombs on January 8th, alleging that KMT Deputy Secretary-General Alex Tsai and Chinese businessman Sun Tianqun tried to threaten and induce William Wang to change his claim, including lying. It was bought by the DPP Chiou I-jen and released false news that he was a spy. Originally, KMT wanted to take the opportunity to frame DPPs, to cheat and to discredit the DPP's integrity. No one knows it is better than heaven. The mantis catches cicadas and cardinals, and there is still a mountain high, which forced the fuse went out that would have detonated the night attack, but it finally evolved into Alex Tsai’s inexplicable dumb bomb briefing session, denies threatening William Wang. Alex claimed that he had not heard from Wang that DPP gave money because Sun insisted that Wang had said DPP Chiou had given a sum of money. The mysterious "VIP" of Han’s pre-election campaign night turned into Han’s wife Lee Chia-fen and daughter Coco Han ended in a hurry. In fact, at this moment, the election win or lose has been set, and the voting on January 11 is just a courtesy routine.

Reasons affecting this presidential election, in addition to Han’s unsuccessful strategy of thunder attack, Hong Kong ’s anti-extradition protest inspired young voters to actively participate in the election, and the anti-infiltration act exerted its power to deter the China’s cyber attack and the underground betting market, The timely rescue revealed KMT Alex Tsai’s loot, and the calm response of the Blackhawk crash did not cause social unrest. The USs supported Taiwan through a series of friendly Taiwan bills. The US-China economic and trade conflict benefit to Taiwan, all of which brought extra credits to Tsai Ing-wen’s victory.

Loss of public opinion Cold and warn you know

Judging from the voting data, of course, Han is not the only master who lost with a good card in this election. Facing the same nine-in-one general election in 2018, the 4.76 million voted in the "Tokyo Olympics with name Taiwan" referendum on the Formosan Alliance, but had only 29,324 votes in the non-division election. Under the discussion of a group of self-proclaimed senior intellectuals and doctors, Taiwan's aura of correctness has been exhausted, and the rapid loss of public opinion behind it is truly amazing. The public opinion can be carried or overturned.

The KMT legislators' no-division nomination has always been one of the factors surrounding this defeat in Han. However, the KMT gained 3,346,504 votes, 33.36%, which is not much different from the DPP's 4,811,241 votes, or 33.98%. It also obtained 13 seats. Judging from the votes alone, Wu Den-yih does not seem to bear the original sin of defeat. Instead, the number of votes cast for Tsai Ing-wen was 3,358,990 more than the votes cast for the DPP. This means that the people really don't agree with the Han, and it is not completely certain that the DPP or Tsai, but Han still has 5,522,119 iron fans.

Int'l community affirmed that Taiwan refuted China

But having said that, the KMT’s cross-strait relations position does need to be reviewed again. Does Taiwan belong to China? Why does the entire party still adhere to the 1992 consensus? Although Han has stated he does not accept one country two systems, unless over his dead body. However, the party is still named under China. Whether the KMT wants to take root in Taiwan or still want to return to its roots in China, it’s time to make it clear its affiliation with China.

After the election results were announced, President Tsai Ing-wen receipted congrats from the leaders and heads of states in the international community. They all congratulated Dr. Tsai for re-election, the presidential election in Taiwan, affirming the democratic achievements of the Taiwan people, and fighting against Chinese hegemony, said No to China. However, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: "Taiwan elections are a local issue of China." The Taiwan Affairs Office also issued a statement saying, "Our policy on Taiwan is clear and consistent. We adhere to the basic principle of "peaceful reunification, one country two systems." Adhere to the one-China principle, resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, resolutely oppose any form of separatist attempts and acts of Taiwan independence, and resolutely promote the interests and welfare of Taiwan compatriots. ". China does not understand democratic elections at all. It has no electoral qualities in itself, but it is really shameless and unreasonable to talk about Taiwan’s presidential election.

Participate internationally and Walk into the world

In her victory speech, Tsai Ing-wen said, "With every presidential election, Taiwanese are telling the world how much we value the democratic and free lifestyle. We sincerely appeal to the authorities on the other side of strait to "peace, reciprocity, democracy, and dialogue." I hope the Beijing authorities can understand that democratic Taiwan and an elected government will not succumb to threats and intimidation. Mutual respect and positive interaction between the two sides of the strait are in line with the interests and expectations of each other's people. The result of this election is the clearest answer. The election is over, and all conflicts in the election process should end here. We have heavier responsibilities on our shoulders and more tasks ahead. Starting tomorrow, we will still work hard every day and will never let down the people who voted for us today.

Yes, Taiwan people want to tell the world through democratic elections how much we cherish a democratic and free lifestyle, how eager to participate in the world and enter the world. Now that the elections are over, what is at hand is the commitment of responsibility and historical challenges. Some people were relieved after the election and said I have fought that good battle and can leave in peace. I believe this is the voice of many people, and I sincerely hope that this is the case. But it is a pity that the truly beautiful jihad in Taiwan has not yet arrived. The entrustment of 8.17 million voters is to protect Taiwan, not to fight for the representation of China with the PRC. Taiwan is Taiwan, isn't it? In the second term of President Tsai, I hope she can cooperate with the United States to deal with the long unsettled issue of the ROC, thereby confirming the national identity of Taiwan and clarifying its legal status in the international community.

Identify Taiwan and Hold on Democracy

Does the Republic of China really own the territorial sovereignty of Taiwan? The UN Resolution 2758 is related to the ROC, but not Taiwan. Why should Taiwan cocoon itself, crown the ROC on top of Taiwan, and humiliate itself? At the end of 2005, I wrote a registered letter to President Chen Shui-bian, and urged him to handle the title of nation with caution. The reply obtained is that "the ROC on Taiwan" is now the consensus. Fifteen years have passed in a hurry, and yet today's society is still turning around in "Taiwan ROC", which is unbearable! Don't forget that the ROC is still well seated at the UN, but its representation is fully and legally inherited by the PRC. Does the ROC Taiwan want to continue to represent China or Taiwan in the future? Please be clear. At that time, Chen couldn't handle it because he faced larger number of opponents. Now DPP won more than half of the Congress is in full power, why wait? If Tsai is invited to the US speak to the Union, does she want to be recognized under the name of the ROC President, the Taiwan ROC President, or the President of Taiwan?

This presidential election lasted for more than half a year, with the enthusiastic participation of millions of voters, and even more compatriots who returned to vote from far away from all over the world. The competition for the campaign team was fierce, but it ended peacefully and held Formosa the beautiful fortress of democracy is indeed commendable. In addition to thanking God for his blessings and blessings, Taiwanese deserve to be proud of ourselves. It is hoped that in the second term of the Tsai government, she can completely lead Taiwan into the world and participate in the international community and organizations.

John Hsieh
Hayward, California

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