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  首頁 > 影音網>習近平鼠年挑戰 Xi’s challenges in Rat year
習近平鼠年挑戰 Xi’s challenges in Rat year

[轉載自:民報]

[謝鎮寬]於2020-01-23 00:01:52上傳[]

 




習近平鼠年挑戰

一月15日川普總統與中國副總理劉鶴,在白宮簽署美中第一階段貿易協議,結束了美中雙方周旋近兩年的貿易衝突。源起2018年3月22日,川普在簽署年度貿易備忘錄時,指責中國偷竊美國智慧財產權和商業秘密,要求美國貿易代表依據1974年貿易法第301條款,對從中國進口高達600億美元的商品徵收關稅,拉開了美中貿易戰的攻防。

2018年7月6日美國啟動,對價值340億美元中國輸美商品,徵收25%的額外關稅;中國商務部於同日作出反制,對價值340億美元的美國輸中商品,徵收25%的額外關稅。2019年8月24日中國宣布停購美農產品,對約750億美元美國商品加徵10%或5%關稅、對美國汽車及其零部件恢復加徵關稅;美國在次日,也增加之前加徵的3000億美元中國貨品的稅率至15%,以及目前的2500億中國貨品,加徵的25%關稅至30%作為反制,但其後被擱置。

你來我往、一連串貿易攻防,因中國錯估情勢率性採取全面抗衡川普,引發川普團隊嚴厲反擊,導致中國遭受前所未有的打擊,百業蕭條、民不聊生、哀鴻遍野。畢竟美中之間存在巨額貿易逆差,2018年$4190億、2019年$3530億,習近平還要玩下去嗎?去年中國社會從房地產、互聯網、影視娛樂、加工出口、製造等幾乎是各行各業,都飽受寒冬摧殘肆虐,幾近一蹶不振。

這份厚達96頁、美中第一階段貿易協議內容,主要是要求中國做出種種付出,中國應該一詞出現82次,遵守一系列承諾和規則,美國則視中國表現考慮是否減免關稅和懲罰。歸納起來它包含七大領域:保護智慧財產權、結束強制技術轉移、增購美國農產品、移除對美國金融服務的限制、結束匯率操縱、重新平衡美中貿易關係、有效的爭端解決機制。具體地說,中國承諾兩年內在2017年購買額的基礎上,額外購買2000億美元美國商品,包括520億美元能源、780億美元製造業商品、320億美元農產品和380億美元服務。中國還同意加強知識產權保護,改善打擊網路侵權、盜版和假冒商品的刑事和民事程序,結束迫使外企技術轉讓給中國公司,同意在2020年4月1日前,取消對證券公司、保險公司、期貨公司和基金管理公司的外資股權上限,允許美國金融公司擁有100%的股權等。

最惠國待遇讓中國大賺美國人的錢

中國自鄧小平於1978年12月18日宣佈改革開放後,社會土法煉鋼、全民努力生產,經濟終於突飛猛進,尤其是2000年9月份,柯林頓簽署了美國國會通過,給予中國永久正常貿易關係法案,那困擾中美關係長達10年之久的美國國會年度審議,給予中國貿易最惠國待遇議題終於告一段落。憑藉這一特殊的禮遇,讓中國每年從美國賺進了大把大把鈔票,早已擠身世界經濟大國,但卻得意忘形,要推一帶一路統領世界,忘了經濟社會應該遵守的基本法制精神,嚴防抄襲山寨假冒,與保護智慧產權。

有道是:由簡入奢易、由奢入簡難。當年中國社會人民普遍貧窮,咬緊牙關什麼苦日子都熬得過去;但現在人民已過了一段溫飽的日子,卻要突然遭遇經濟寒冬來襲,就怕人民日子就要撐不下去了。有人怪罪劉鶴,不該去簽這份喪權辱國、所謂的新版「馬關條約」,而嘲諷他為「劉鴻章」。其實中國早已得知,如果當前不簽約,將面對更加嚴厲和恐怖的綜合打擊。留得青山在、不怕沒材燒;走到這個地步,只好再次發揮紅軍、十萬五千里長征的革命精神,只能無條件接受協議、簽下去。

其實,批評者根本就言過其詞,因馬關條約是割地賠款,把台灣澎湖完整主權,永久割讓給日本,而台灣也自1895年起,與中國田無溝、水不流,毫無從屬關係。而這份貿易協定,既無割地、也沒賠款,它只要求中國從今而後,遵守國際社會自由貿易的承諾規則。川普只是想把中國經濟政策,全面納入美國法制系統框架,讓美國可以掌控中國經濟政策,實施不間斷的各方面法治化精確打擊。希望能因此,徹底遏止長期來中國偷盜搶騙智慧財產權、假冒偽劣產品生產銷售,而賺取暴利的惡行;阻止中國要求,強制技術轉讓的霸道;嚴格控管國際金融秩序、杜絕洗錢,以防國際金融失控,防範中國社會因經濟蕭條,而引發的社會動盪與崩潰。

綜觀這場貿易戰,是國營企業與民營企業,在民主經濟市場的對決。川普是有備而來,打了一場他想要打的戰,而且打得穩、準、狠。反觀習近平卻是自不量力,只靠人民義和團似的無理頭抗爭,當然毫無招架能力,最後只好認賠賣出、自取其辱。回顧歷史,經濟崩盤,往往就是帝國瓦解的前兆。1991年蘇聯解體殷鑑不遠,習近平是聰明人,痛定思痛,好好把握、因美國總統大選而美中貿易休戰期間,養精蓄銳、端正信守承諾、奉行遵守國際貿易規則,或許有機會在貿易戰第二回合交出好成績;當然也有可能,習大帝國崩盤、瓦解,從此走入歷史。

鼠年對習近平來說,可能是萬鼠鑽洞、鼠來鼠去的鼠來寶,給他帶來新氣象;也有可能是,鼠輩橫行、獐頭鼠目的過街老鼠,讓他抱頭鼠竄。武漢肺炎在鼠年開春正面襲來,經濟衰退、勞工失業、學潮抗爭、香港反送中、維吾爾爭自由,也一一擺在面前等他來善後、處理。稍一不慎,都有可能讓他萬劫不復。鼠來天開、應該是萬象更新金鼠過年。呼籲習大大,放棄無任期制的一夫獨大,不再霸凌台灣。讓世界過個,眾望所鼠的太平年!

謝鎮寬
加州、海沃

https://www.peoplenews.tw/news/e5dcaa97-889b-4115-964e-b45002ee3b01
民報
【專文】貿易戰第二回
文/謝鎮寬(加州、海沃) 2020-01-22 14:07

Xi’s challenges in Rat year

On January 15, President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed the historic and enforceable Phase One of the US-China trade agreement at the White House, ending the two-year trade conflict between the US and China. Originating on March 22, 2018, while signing the annual trade memorandum, Trump accused China of stealing U.S. intellectual property rights and trade secrets, and required the US Trade Representative to tax the up to $60 billion US dollars import goods from China in accordance with Article 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. It kicked off the war of tariffs on trade commodities between the US-China.

On July 6, 2018, the US launched a 25% additional tariff on US $ 34 billion worth of Chinese export goods to the US; the Chinese Ministry of Commerce fought back on the same day and imposed an additional 25% tariff on US $ 34 billion worth of US exports to China. On August 24, 2019, China announced that it would stop purchasing U.S. agricultural products, impose a 10% or 5% tariff on approximately US$75 billion US goods, and resume tariffs on U.S. automobiles and their parts. On the second day, the tax rate of US $ 300 billion of Chinese goods was levied to 15%, and the current rate of 250 billion Chinese goods was levied from 25% to 30% as a countermeasure, but it was later shelved.

Come and go, a series of trade offenses and defenses, because China miscalculates the situation and adopts a big scale counter-attack against Trump, which triggers a severe back fight by the Trump team, causing China to suffer unprecedented hits. After all, there is a huge trade deficit between the US and China, with $ 419 billion in 2018 and $ 353 billion in 2019. Will Xi Jinping continue to play? Last year, Chinese society from real estate, the Internet, film and television entertainment, processing and export, manufacturing, and other industries were suffering from the ravages of the cold winter.

The contents of this 96-page, U.S.-China Phase One trade agreement mainly require China to make various contributions. China shall appear 82 times and ask China to abide a series of commitments and rules. The US will consider whether to reduce tariffs and exempt punishment based on China's performance. To sum up, it includes seven major areas: protecting intellectual property rights, ending forced technology transfer, increasing purchases of US agricultural products, removing restrictions on US financial services, ending currency exchange rate manipulation, expanding trade commitments from China to import various US goods, and effective dispute resolution mechanisms. Specifically, China promised to import various US goods and services over the next two years in a total amount that exceeds China’s annual level of imports for those goods and services in 2017 by no less than $200 billion, including $52 billion of energy, $78 billion of manufacturing goods, $32 billion of agricultural products, and $38 billion of services. China also agreed to strengthen intellectual property protection, improve criminal and civil procedures to combat online infringement, piracy, and counterfeit goods, end forced technology transfer from foreign companies to Chinese companies, and agree to abolish securities companies, insurance companies, Futures companies and fund management companies' foreign equity caps allow US financial companies to own 100% of shares.

The most-favored-nation treatment benefited China to make a fortune

After Deng Xiaoping initiated the historic Reform and Opening-up of China on December 18, 1978, China worked out their own way to make living, due to the hard work of the people, the economy finally made rapid progress, especially in September 2000 President Clinton signed the Congressional bill to grant China permanent normal trade. The 10-year annual review of the US Congress that has plagued Sino-US Relations has finally come to an end on the issue of China's most-favored-nation treatment. With this special courtesy, China makes a lot of money from the US every year. It has long been crowded into the world’s economic powers, but is so proud that it has to push the One Belt and One Road to lead the world and forget the spirit of the basic legal system that the economy and society should adhere to prevent plagiarism and counterfeiting, and protect intellectual property rights.

There is a saying: easy from simple to extravagant, but hard from extravagant to simple. At that time, the Chinese people were generally poor, so they could survive any bitter days of clenching their teeth. But now that the people have passed through a period of subsistence and fullness, they are suddenly hit by an economic winter, and they are afraid that the people's lives will not last. Someone blame Liu He, and he should not sign the so-called new version of the "Shimonoseki Treaty", which ridicules his country and ridicules him as "Liu Hongchang." In fact, China has long known that if it does not sign a contract, it will face a more severe and horrific comprehensive attack. Staying in the mountains, not afraid of burnt material; to this point, Xi had no choice but to re-enact the revolutionary spirit of the Red Army and the 5600-mile Long March, and had to accept the agreement and sign it unconditionally.

In fact, critics have exaggerated it at all, because the treaty of Shimonoseki ceded in perpetuity the full sovereign of Formosa and the Pescadores to Japan and paid a war indemnity, It makes Taiwan has also had no any relations with China since 1895. The trade agreement, which has neither land cessation nor war indemnity, only requires China to abide by the rules of the international community's commitment to free trade. Trump just wants to integrate China's economic policy into the framework of the US legal system, so that the US can take control of China's economic policy and implement an uninterrupted and precise blow to the rule of law. Hopefully this can completely stop the long-term China's theft of intellectual property rights, the production and sale of fake and shoddy products, and make huge profits; stop China's requirements and enforce the hegemony of technology transfer; strictly control the international financial order and prevent money laundering, to prevent international financial runaway and prevent social turmoil and collapse caused by economic depression in Chinese society.

Reviewing this trade war, it is a confrontation between state runs business and private enterprises in a democratic economic market. Trump came prepared and fought a battle he wanted to fight, and it was steady, accurate, and fierce. On the other hand, Xi was overwhelmed and relied on the irrational head of the people's Boxer Rebellion. Of course, he did not have the ability to fight it. In the end, he had to confess his losses and pledge to sell. In retrospect, economic collapse is often a precursor to the collapse of the empire. Not far from the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Xi was a clever man, with a lot of pains and pains in mind, during the US-China trade truce due to the US presidential election, to recharge his knowledge, uphold commitments and abide by the international trade rules . Then the Phase II trade war may get a good score; of course, it is also possible that Xi's empire collapsed and disintegrated, and it has since entered history.

For Xi Jinping, the year of rat could just like a rat dug hole smoothly in and out, bringing him new hope and fortune; or it could be a rat running across the street, covering his head sneak away like from attack. Wuhan pneumonia virus outbreak had a direct impact in the beginning of the year of rat, economic recession, labor unemployment, student strike, Hong Kong anti-extradition protest, Uyghur struggle for freedom, these are waiting for him to deal with. A slightly negligence could trap him a big disaster. Rat comes a new way open, it should be a happy golden new year. Urging Emperor Xi gives up his unlimited term of presidency, abandon his one-man dictatorship and no more bully Taiwan. Let the world live a prosperous and peaceful year for everyone!

John Hsieh
California, Hayward

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