澳洲在美國亞太戰略的角色
Australia’s Role in the U.S.’s Asia-Pacific Strategy
澳洲在美國亞太戰略中向來扮演重要的角色，二戰期間，美軍從菲律賓潰 敗之後，麥克阿瑟將軍即以澳洲作為反攻跳板。另外早在一九六七年起，美國就透過在澳洲興建的海軍基地監控蘇聯海空調動及發射飛彈的狀況。現在則以監控中共、俄羅斯、印巴等國海空軍活動及電信為主。由於美國布希政府在新世紀的主要戰略是將美國國防重心由歐洲移往亞洲，所以亞洲在經濟利益與安全利益上都比歐洲來的重要。過去地處亞太地區邊陲的澳洲，基於地理位置、經貿關係、歷史淵源與低姿態的地緣政治企圖心，澳洲較美國更易與亞洲各國建立聯繫管道。
Australia has long been playing a vital role in the U.S.’s Asia
-Pacific policy. During World War II, General McArthur chose Australia
as a springboard for his counterattack after American troops stumbled
in the Philippines. In addition, beginning as early as 1967, the United
States has already work through naval bases installed in Australia for
collecting Soviet Union’s sea and air deployment and missile launching.
Those facilities are now monitoring naval and air force activities and
communications of PRC, Russia, India, Pakistan and so forth.
二○○一年七月，美國九一一事件發生之前，美國國務卿鮑威爾與國防部長倫斯斐同時造訪澳洲，並在年度雙邊保安會議中強調美澳聯盟的重要性，並指出日澳南韓是美國在亞太地區的戰略夥伴，使澳洲在美國亞太戰略的地位與比重也隨之提高。其主要原因在於澳洲的地理位置接近南海與印度洋，使美澳之間的軍事合作對於美國在南海與印度洋地區兵力投射及維持海空兵力，具有舉足輕重的地位，當美國無法獲得東南亞軍事基地與設施之使用權時，澳洲的重要性將超過今日的地位。7
In July 2001, before the September 11, the US Secretary of State
Colin Powell and Secretary of Defence Donald H. Rumsfield visited Australia
at the same time. They emphasized on the importance of alliance between
US and Australia in an annual bilateral meeting on regional security.
They noted that Japan, Australia, and South Korea are US strategic partners
in Asia-Pacific. Because the geographic position of Australia near the
South China Sea and the India Ocean, the role and influence of Australia
in US’s Asia-Pacific strategy will increase than before. The military
cooperation of US-Australia will have positive effect on US power projection
and military presence in South China
Sea and India Ocean. If US cannot get the access to bases and facilities
in this area, these military infrastructures have to be found in Australia.
The role of Australia, under this circumstance, will be more important
than before in the overall US’s Asia-Pacific strategy.7
澳洲的主流觀點認為所有的外交政策都必須以澳洲與美國的聯盟關係為優先考量。美國兵力在本區域的駐留非常重要，所以澳洲認為有義務提供相關的政治與實務的支援，使美國能夠兌現其承諾。因此維持與美國的雙邊聯盟關係是澳洲的最高戰略要務，對美國是否持續參與亞太地區事務極為重要，因為美澳聯盟關係已經被雙方視為後冷戰時代亞太地區戰略架構的要素，有助於維持美國對西太平洋的戰略承諾。也因為如此，澳洲為求拉住美國，維繫自己的安全，也必須持續展現其對美國的功能，如情報分享、區域外交、及一支可觀武力可用於美軍區域作戰的夥伴等。澳洲也因此必須自制，在與美國發生貿易與農業上的爭議時，也避免有所衝突，以免損害雙方關係。但是澳洲也會憂慮，如果中共攻擊台灣，而美國支持的話，勢必會使澳洲因為與美國有防衛協定而捲入此一衝突。8
Australia’s mainstream opinions subscribe to the view that all diplomatic
policies must build upon Australian’s alliance with the United States
as a priority concern. As American military presence in the region remains
very crucial, Australia believes that it is obliged to offer political
and practical support allowing the United States to attain its commitments.
In other words, maintaining alliance with the U.S. has become Australia’s
highest strategic mission, which is crucial in determining whether the
U.S. is to continue participating Asia-Pacific affairs since the American-Australian
tie is regarded as a key both in post-Cold War Asia-Pacific strategy
and beneficial in attaining the U.S.’s strategic
commitment for West Pacific. It is exactly because Australia needs to
maintain its security it has to demonstrate its functions to the U.S.
such as intelligence sharing, regional diplomacy and an impressive force
that could backup the American forces’ regional combats. To keep warm
relations with the US, Australia also needs to exercise self-restrain
by avoiding conflicts in cases of trade and agricultural disputes with
the U.S. and not to jeopardize their strategic tie. Yet Australia worries
that its American-Australian defense protocol is likely to get it involved
in potential Taiwan Strait conflicts.8
因此，澳洲從三個方向去處理亞太區域的問題：（一）保持與美國長期聯盟關係，鼓勵美國繼續在亞太駐軍；（二）澳洲以雙邊的方式與鄰國發展安全關係，促進與東南亞國家的戰略合作；（三）為區域性安全推動多邊合作，以建立一個區域性安全社會。
As a result, Australia is likely to resolve Asia-Pacific issues
in three general directions: first, to maintain its long-term U.S. ally
relationship by encouraging the U.S. to continue deploying troops in
Pacific Asia; second, Australia would push to establish security ties
with its adjacent countries through bilateral means with which to excel
its strategic cooperation with Southeast Asian countries; third, to
find out the way for multilateral cooperation to maintain regional security.
印度安全情勢
India’s Security Situation
印度在冷戰兩極體系對立期間，提出不結盟運動，作為外交政策的主要原則。冷戰雖已結束，但不結盟原則仍是其外交政策不可或缺的一部份，其主要目標是期望同意印度參與各項重要政治議題及聯合國常任理事國席次。印度在一九九七年加入東協區域論壇之後，南亞與東南亞的安全合作有了新的內涵，除政治方面加強雙邊關係之外，經濟合作也互蒙其利。
India, during the Cold War era, has proposed non-alliance movement
as a key guideline for its diplomatic policy. Despite the end of the
Cold War, its non-alliance doctrine remains alive in steering its diplomatic
policy, aimed at securing India the chance to partake various crucial
political agenda and looking for a seat in the U.N. Security Council
permanent members. India’s joining the ASEAN Regional Forum in 1997
has brought new meanings to its security cooperation with South Asia
and Southeast Asia. It has not only stepped-up bilateral relationship
but also garnered benefits from
each other through economic cooperation.
印度戰略目標、國防政策與軍備現況
India’s Strategic Objectives, Defense Policy and Current Forces
印度主要有三個戰略目標：（一）鞏固其在南亞的霸主地位；（二）保持印度洋的軍事優勢；（三）保持足夠軍力期能提高其國際社會地位。其在國防目標的達成上，採取不結盟的政策，並要求區域外國家不得在次大陸建立基地；力求印度洋的非軍事化；在南亞的安全與政治關係則強調雙邊互動，明確限制外界強權介入區域事務的意圖。9如果印度能夠避免重蹈過去低度發展的覆轍，則能恢復其在亞洲的地緣政治的影響力。但若印度以貿易為經濟發展重心，則將與全球經濟體系建立新的互賴模式，並循不同管道發揮影響力。依據其經濟發展的可能成果，對亞洲的地緣政治產生三種不同的結果：
◆經濟成長恢復到冷戰時期的百分之三點五，這將限制印度在南亞的發展，印度逐漸為國際社會所忽視。
◆如果以目前百分之五點五成長率持續成長，將使印度得以逐步將觸角伸出南亞，提高對亞洲權力版圖的影響力，並以新興勢力姿態吸引國際注意。
◆如果以更高（百分之七）的成長率發展，將使印度銳變為強權國家，並在亞洲有舉足輕重的地位，使國際社會將其視為有全球影響力的國家。
India has three strategic objectives: to strength its dominance
in Southeast Asia, to maintain its military supremacy in the India Ocean,
and to maintain sufficient military forces that would improve its standing
in international society. To attain its defense objectives, India continues
its no-alignment policy. It asks for non-militarization of the Indian
Ocean with military bases on the sib-continent. India emphasizes bilateral
interactions with Southeast Asia’s security and political ties, but
stresses the need to restrict foreign forces’ attempts in intervening
regional affairs.9
Suppose India is able to avoid
repeating its low development strategy, there is a strong likelihood
that it will be able to regain its influence on Asia’s geopolitical
map. If India makes effort to develop trade and economics, it will be
able to have a new interdependence mode integrated into the global economic
system and have various means to showcase its influence. Based on the
likely effect of India’s economic development, its geopolitical role
can be illustrated as follows.
◆ If economic development dipping
to the Cold War era--3.5%, this would stymie India’s Southeast Asia
development, and India would be ignored by the international
society.
◆ If India can maintain the present
5.5% economic growth, it would afford India to reach out to South Asia
and improve its influence throughout the Asian region, catching international
attention as an emerging power.
◆ If India’s economic growth reaches
as high as 7%, it will promote India as a main power and capable of
delivering global influence on the international society.
在印度軍備現況方面，印度在傳統武力尤其是海軍，優於中共；但在核武發展上卻遜於中共，因此印度經常強調其發展核武係為保護自己，不會主動攻擊他國。
On its present military presence, India’s conventional forces, particularly
its Navy, remains superior to that of PRC, but lags behind PRC in nuclear
weaponry. This forces India to claim that nuclear development in India
is for self-defense not an offensive tool.
印度與東協國家的互動
India’s Interaction with ASEAN Members
冷戰結束之後，印度同時推行經濟與外交調整兩大任務之際，亞太地區，尤其是東南亞，成為對印度極為重要的地區。印度在其安全方面一向重視西方與北方，在印度致力改革之後，已經了解東方的重要性。從一九九○年代初期以來，印度已經有系統的與該地區所有國家接觸，以期重建政治關係與擴大商業活動。其與東南亞國家來往與互動主要著眼於幾項利益：第一，在經濟利益方面：印度在改變經濟戰略轉而注重國際貿易之後，為了開拓亞洲市場，印度非常關切區域性貿易集團的出現，為免遭新趨勢所孤立，乃積極設法加入亞洲的貿易組織。東南亞的安定與繁榮是印度的基本利益，因為印度本身經濟發展的成功與否係於東南亞的經濟，因此印度希望東南亞地區經濟繁榮，以便幫助印度提昇期本國的經濟。例如印度從一九九四年開始就致力吸引新加坡投資，成為其「躍向全球市場的跳板」。
Following the end of Cold War, Asian Pacific, particularly Southeast
Asia, has emerged to be crucial areas to India when India is seeking
to re-adjust its economic and diplomatic ties. India, in security concerns,
has long taken to its west and north yet, through reforms over the recent
years, it has been made to realize the importance of the East. Since
the early 1990s, India has systematically begun to make contact with
countries across the regions with the purpose of establishing political
tie and expand commercial activities. Its exchange and interaction with
Southeast Asia are largely focused
on a few tangible gains. First comes the economic benefit, as India
is keen to see the emergence of regional trade groups, and shifted its
economic focus to global trade to avoid being isolated from the emerging
trend, India is in a move to expand the Asian markets and actively seeking
to participate Asian trade organizations. While Southeast Asia’s stability
and prosperity serves to protect India’s essential gain, India realizes
that India’s chance to have a successful domestic economic development
is inseparably tied to the economic trends across Southeast Asia. A
prime example can be found in how India has since 1994 begun to draw
investments from Singapore, as India anticipates Singapore to become
a springboard for India to leap onto the global market.
第二，在政治利益方面，印度和中共不同，印度是希望維持現狀的國家，對亞洲根本沒有領土或霸權的野心，印度認為由於其擁有強大的軍力與龐大的經濟成長潛力，因此，可以對亞太權力結構的穩定，付出貢獻。印度雖然有為數龐大的回教人口，但卻希望東南亞國家能夠協助阻擋回教基本教義派向該地區擴張。最初印度在東南亞的政治與戰略利益偏重在中南半島地區，並對中南半島國家非常支持，其主要的用意在聯合制衡中共勢力透過緬甸進入印度洋。在印度加強與東南亞國家的經貿往來加後，亦積極與東南亞國家共同發展安全合作，例如與東南亞國家舉行雙邊軍事演習或多國聯合軍事演習，另外並進一步在軍事訓練、基地交流、軍備維修上合作。未來印度可能會考慮採行其他的方式使和平維持的任務能夠制度化，如開放印度洋海軍設施供其他國家商業與軍事使用，保護海上航道，共同打擊海盜行為，彼此交換情報，展開海洋研究及維護生態環境等。10
The next aspect is about the political gain. India is different
from China. India looks to maintain its regional role to keep a status
quo. It has literally no territorial ambition beyond South Asia. India
believes that its dynamic military presence and enormous economic growth
potential can somewhat contribute toward stabilizing Asia-Pacific power
structure. Despite its sizable Islamic population, India does anticipate
Southeast Asian countries help block off the Islamic fundamentalist
activities seeping into the region. In earlier days, India had its Southeast
Asian political and strategic gains built upon the security of Indochina
and was supportive of the countries in this area as a way to counterbalance
PRC infiltration to the Indian Ocean through Myanmar. As a result, India
not only warms up its relations with Southeast Asian countries in economic
and trade link, but also takes an active role in instilling security
cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, as seen in its bilateral
and multilateral military exercises conducted with Southeast Asian countries.
In the future, India is likely to consider to institutionalize its peacekeeping
mission via other viable means, such as opening up its Indian
Ocean military facilities for commercial and military purposes for other
countries, guarding maritime routes, jointly eradicating maritime piracy,
sharing military intelligence, as well as launching maritime research
works and ecological conservation.10
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